Quick Thoughts on Trump
Sat Nov 12 2016
So much to read and digest with so much news analysis on this, see below my very simple read.
Trump is a businessman, and to understand him, you need to think like a businessman. In business, the key is to use your size to control the critical resources and drive up prices to your advantage on the negotiation table.
Businesses cannot operate alone, so need partners. Given the size of US, only big economies such as China, Germany, and Russia can be his partners. Smaller countries will definitely be left out in the next 4 years, or 8 years. China and US will both prosper under this “Duopoly”, Europe and Japan neutral while smaller countries like Singapore and South East Asia will be compromised.
Treasury will continue to be sold and China the biggest buyer of US Treasury will have to recycle their USD to finance US infrastructure projects as part of negotiation, so no punitive trade tariffs as widely reported. Maybe against smaller countries to appease the voters.
Use every dip when media doubt his plans to sell bonds and buy into sectors that will benefit eg US banks, cyclical, value stocks. And China tech is on my buy watch list too.
Last, this is my personal view, caveat emptor.