{"componentChunkName":"component---src-templates-newsletter-js","path":"/newsletters/the-anatomy-of-a-liquidity-trough-why-q2-2026-is-a-critical-juncture/","result":{"data":{"markdownRemark":{"fields":{"slug":"/newsletters/the-anatomy-of-a-liquidity-trough-why-q2-2026-is-a-critical-juncture/"},"frontmatter":{"title":"The Anatomy of a Liquidity Trough: Why Q2 2026 is a Critical Juncture","datetime":"2026-05-26T11:35:34.162Z","content":"Dear readers,\n\nIn a market driven by liquidity and purely conjectural blue-sky imagination, logic and analysis have their limits. War, inflation et al. will not stop the current concentration of bets.\n\nOur focus is on monitoring liquidity, which ultimately is the only force which can rein in the mania. Below, you will find a report I produced with GoAI on liquidity.\n\nI hope you have a good read and start to use GoAI with your future investments needs. ICHX has been developing the GoAI investment agent since early 2025, and it has now evolved into a leading tool for diligent retail and corporate investors alike.\n\nWith the launch of GoAI and its agents, I will also be stepping back from future newsletters. I hope you will continue to stay closely connected to our views by actively engaging with the agent, and perhaps even building your own research agents through GoAI.\n\nThank you and take care\n\n\\--------------------\n\n**Executive Summary**\n\nThe projection of a significant liquidity trough in the second quarter of 2026 stems from a confluence of two powerful, yet distinct, financial forces: the lagged effect of a cyclical downturn in fiscal stimulus and a large, seasonal drain of liquidity by the U.S. Treasury. The primary driver is the fading impulse from the massive Treasury bill (T-bill) issuance of 2024, a form of \"fiscal QE\" that has a roughly eight-month delayed impact on asset prices. This fading stimulus is set to bottom out precisely as the Treasury General Account (TGA) swells with tax receipts, temporarily pulling over a trillion dollars out of the banking system. This report breaks down the mechanics of this impending liquidity squeeze, explains the timeline leading to the Q2 2026 trough, and outlines the structural forces that are expected to create a powerful new liquidity wave beyond it.\n\n\\---\n\n**Part 1: The T-Bill Impulse - A New Engine of Liquidity**\n\nTo understand the 2026 trough, one must first understand the primary liquidity driver of the post-2021 era: **Treasury bill issuance**. This mechanism, often dubbed \"Treasury QE,\" has become a more potent force for risk assets than traditional central bank quantitative easing (QE). Research from financial analysis firm Keyrock has demonstrated that since 2021, net T-bill issuance has the strongest leading correlation with Bitcoin's price (a correlation coefficient of +0.80), significantly higher than the Fed's balance sheet changes \\[1].\n\nThe mechanism works as follows:\n\n1. **Issuance and Funding:** The U.S. Treasury issues short-term T-bills to fund the government's budget deficit.\n2. **Payment and TGA:** Banks and money market funds purchase these bills. The funds are transferred to the Treasury's checking account at the Federal Reserve, the Treasury General Account (TGA).\n3. **Spending and Deposit Creation:** The Treasury then spends this money on government obligations (e.g., Social Security, defense contracts, infrastructure projects). This spending flows directly into the bank accounts of individuals and corporations as **new deposits**.\n\nThis process injects fresh liquidity directly into the real economy, which then filters into financial markets. This is fundamentally different from traditional Fed QE, where the central bank swaps reserves for bonds with commercial banks, a process that primarily impacts financial asset prices first. The fiscal nature of the T-bill impulse means it has a longer and more variable transmission mechanism.\n\nThe Critical 8-Month Lag\n\nCrucially, there is a significant delay between the act of T-bill issuance and its peak impact on asset prices. Analysis shows this lag to be approximately **eight months** \\[1]. This delay reflects the time it takes for government spending to circulate through the real economy before being saved, invested, and allocated to risk assets like equities and cryptocurrencies. This lag is the key to understanding the timeline of the current liquidity cycle.\n\n\\---\n\n**Part 2: The Timeline of a Fading Impulse**\n\nThe current liquidity headwind is the direct result of the T-bill issuance cycle that began during the pandemic.\n\n**The Peak Impulse (Late 2024):** Following a period of aggressive T-bill issuance to fund the large deficits of 2023 and 2024, the net issuance impulse peaked at an astonishing rate of over **$2 trillion** on an annualized basis \\[1]. This massive injection of fiscal liquidity was the primary driver of the strong performance of risk assets through late 2024 and into 2025.\n\n\n**The Fading Impulse (2025 - Early 2026):** Throughout 2025, the pace of net T-bill issuance began to slow down significantly. However, due to the eight-month lag, the *effect* of this slowdown was not immediately felt. The market continued to ride the wave of the liquidity that had been injected months prior.\n\n\n**The Trough (Q2 2026):** By the second quarter of 2026, the eight-month lag has fully caught up. The powerful impulse from late 2024 has completely faded from the system. The lagged net issuance impulse is projected to bottom out near zero during this period, meaning the fiscal tailwind that had been driving markets has, for the moment, disappeared \\[1].\n\n\\---\n\n**Part 3: The Double Whammy - A Seasonal Drain Meets a Cyclical Trough**\n\nThe situation in Q2 2026 is exacerbated by a second, independent factor: a massive, seasonal liquidity drain from the U.S. Treasury.\n\nEvery year, the Treasury's cash balance (the TGA) swells between February and April as it collects tax payments from individuals and corporations. A rising TGA balance acts as a **liquidity drain**, pulling reserves out of the banking system and into the government's account at the Fed. It is functionally equivalent to a temporary form of quantitative tightening.\n\nAccording to a February 2026 speech by a senior New York Fed official, the TGA is projected to **peak at approximately $1.025 trillion by late April 2026** \\[2].\n\nThis creates a \"double whammy\" for markets in Q2 2026:\n\n1. **Cyclical Trough:** The lagged impact of the T-bill issuance impulse hits its lowest point.\n2. **Seasonal Drain:** The TGA simultaneously drains over a trillion dollars of liquidity from the financial system.\n\nIt is this combination of a cyclical low in fiscal stimulus and a peak in seasonal liquidity withdrawal that defines the Q2 2026 trough and creates a challenging environment for risk assets.\n\n\\---\n\n**Part 4: The Outlook Beyond the Trough - The Inescapable Wall of Debt**\n\nWhile the near-term outlook is challenging, the Q2 2026 trough is not expected to be a permanent state. A powerful structural force is building that points towards a renewed and sustained wave of liquidity injection.\n\nThe U.S. government is facing a monumental \"wall of debt\" that requires refinancing. An estimated **$3 to $4 trillion in government debt is set to mature annually through 2029** \\[1]. The Treasury must roll over this debt, and given the limited capacity of private and foreign buyers to absorb this much long-term debt without sending interest rates soaring, the path of least resistance is to continue funding a significant portion through short-term T-bills.\n\nProjections based on Treasury and CBO data indicate that T-bill issuance is expected to accelerate again starting in **mid-2026**, reaching a sustained pace of **$600-$800 billion per year** \\[1].\n\nApplying the eight-month lag, this new wave of fiscal liquidity would begin to impact asset prices in **late 2026 and into early 2027**, creating a new tailwind for markets. The inescapable arithmetic of the national debt suggests that while policymakers may desire to shrink their footprint, the structural need to finance the government will ultimately dictate the direction of liquidity.\n\n*References*\n\n\\[1] Keyrock. (2026, February 23). The Liquidity Source That Leads Bitcoin. Retrieved from <https://keyrock.com/the-liquidity-source-that-leads-bitcoin/>\n\n\\[2] Remache, J. (2026, February 12). *Monetary Policy Implementation in an Ample Reserves Regime*. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Retrieved from <https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2026/rem260212>\n\n\\[3] Montgomery, R. (2026, February 23). *The liquidity vacuum: Why markets may experience a reality check*. Montgomery Investment Management. Retrieved from <https://www.montinvest.com/investor-insights/learn-about-investing/the-liquidity-vacuum-why-markets-may-experience-a-reality-check>\n\n\\[4] Ainslie Wealth. (2026, February 13). *Bitcoin Analysis: Beyond the Block – February 2026*. Retrieved from <https://www.ainsliewealth.com/articles/bitcoin-analysis-beyond-the-block-february-2026>","author":"GoAI","authorTitle":null,"headerImage":"/media/micheile-henderson-zvprbbmt8qa-unsplash-1-.jpg"}}},"pageContext":{"id":"e7525ad8-b594-5f46-b532-35d57cf0e212","slug":"/newsletters/the-anatomy-of-a-liquidity-trough-why-q2-2026-is-a-critical-juncture/","language":"en","i18n":{"language":"en","languages":["en","ch"],"defaultLanguage":"en","routed":false,"resources":{"en":{"translation":{"home":"Home","csr":"CSR","portfolio":"Portfolio","media":"Media","newsletters":"Newsletters","careers":"Careers","about-us":"About Us","contact-us":"Contact Us","ich-group":"ICH Group","investing-for-tomorrow":"Investing in tomorrow","company":"Company","about-us-text":"ICH started in 2000 as Internet Century Holdings, driven by the opportunities that Internet technology provided. We believe that change can be good and should be embraced, and we believe that technology as a driver of change will continue to bring benefits to humanity. We hope to look back at all our investments not only in terms of the returns we make, but also the change our investments bring about. We want not only to make investments, we want to drive changes that will benefit many. ","about-us-last-p":"Today, we invest globally in unique and promising enterprises directly and through the Private Equity and Venture Capital Funds that we manage or invest in. We are actively on the lookout for promising companies and funds that can seek out such companies.","ich-founding-team":"ICH Founding Team, Group Chairman and CEO","about-us-chairman":"Mr. Danny Toe","about-us-chairman-p1":"Danny graduated with a first class honours degree in electrical engineering from the National University of Singapore. He is a former officer of Singapore Economic Development Board as well as the co-founder of two listed companies i.e. MyWeb (listed in USA) and WizOffice (listed in SGX=ST Mainboard). Danny was awarded the Einstein technology medal in 2001 for his achievement in the field of technology.","about-us-chairman-p2":"Danny lived in Beijing China from 1999 and set up investment company ICH, subsequent to the listing of the two startups. ICH has since advised and invested in many landmark companies that rose along with the China economy, including Alibaba, Lining and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding.","about-us-chairman-p3":"Under Danny’s stewardship, ICH has broadened its investment coverage to USA, North Asia and Southeast Asia, with interests in Private Equity, Direct Investments and Fund of Funds.","about-us-chairman-p4":"Danny is also an active angel investor and mentor to both NTU Ventures and PayPal Incubator Singapore.","about-us-group-ceo":"Co-founder and President","about-us-ceo-name":"Mr. Vincent Toe","about-us-ceo-p1":"Vincent Toe is a distinguished investment executive with over 30 years of experience in investment banking, private equity, fund management, and corporate advisory across Asia. He is the Co founder of ICH Group Ltd, an investment holding company established in Singapore in 2000, and currently serves as Managing Director of ICHAM Pte. Ltd., a firm specializing in fund management, investment advisory, and corporate advisory services.","about-us-ceo-p2":"From April 2022 to 2024, Vincent was the inaugural CEO of Yangzijiang Financial Holding Ltd (SGX: YF8.SI), the largest fund management company listed on the Singapore Exchange. Backed by Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, the firm manages an assets-under-management (AUM) portfolio of approximately S$4.6 billion. ","about-us-ceo-p3":"As of mid 2025, Yangzijiang Financial has a market capitalization of approximately S$3.7 billion. Vincent previously held senior roles in investment banking at UBS, DBS, and JP Morgan, and worked as a fund manager at GEM. He has also served as an Independent Non Executive Director and Chairman of Audit Committees for several publicly listed companies.He holds a Bachelor of Banking and Finance (First Class Honours) from Nanyang Technological University.","business-units":"Business Units","private-equity":"Private Equity","direct-investments":"Direct Investments","funds-of-funds":"Funds of Funds","multi-family-office":"Multi-Family Office","ich-fintech":"ICH Fintech","bursary":"Bursary","open-bursary":"Open Bursary","csr-long":"Corporate Social Responsibility","csr-home-text":"The ICH Bursary (the “bursary”) draws on our founders’ (namely Danny and Vincent Toe) childhood, and to honour their mother Mdm Tan Sew Lan. This Bursary is awarded based on financial needs and is open to all levels of students and all nationalities. The award is intended for primary and secondary school and above applicants.","learn-more":"Learn More","quick-links":"Quick Links","information":"Information","location":"Location","csr-page-text-1":"The ICH Bursary (the “bursary”) draws on our founders’ (namely Danny and Vincent Toe) childhood, and to honour their mother Mdm Tan Sew Lan. Raised in traditional Asian values of hard work, resilience and self-sufficiency, the brothers had no access to financial support despite living on income below the poverty line. Growing up with little and less than peers can be discomforting, but a right lens and attitude very quickly shone light on the advantages of being the underdog. With little to lose and the accompanying hunger, every opportunity is seized upon. The early humble childhood laid a strong foundation for their subsequent endeavours. ICH does not promote irresponsible giving that can lead to complacency – we see education as an equalizer in the modern economy. The ICH Bursary is a SG$ 5 million evergreen education support grant, designed to guide, motivate, inspire and support. Our objective is to identify up to 200 families a year we can support and provide mentorship to the selected candidates who will go on to inspire others as they mature. The bursary aims to inculcate resilience and character building and to adopt a high touch approach over time. We hope recipients will be proud to be selected by us and not see us as another charitable act. To achieve this, we need to profile applicants and assess candidates through an online questionnaire to do our pre-selection. ","csr-page-text-2":"Candidates will be assessed based on:","assesment-a":"Regular financial needs 40pct","assesment-b":"Applicant’s Potential profiling 30pct","assesment-c":"Special needs (medical, event driven) 20pct","assesment-d":"Other considerations 10pct","faq":"F.A.Q","faq-1-q":"Can one family have multiple applications?","faq-1-a":"Yes, but we have to weigh the needs vis a vis other applicants and also to look at the applicant’s family profile and needs.","faq-2-q":"Can we give to the same applicant yearly?","faq-2-a":"Yes, if they display the qualities that we promote, OR if the financial situation calls for it.","faq-3-q":"How is the bursary funded?","faq-3-a":"ICH will provide the funding on a need-to basis up to SG$ 100,000 per year. We continue to look for partners who share our vision and are able to contribute non-monetary support and mentorship to the cause.","all-levels":"All Levels","details-here":"Details Here","nus":"NUS","ntu":"NTU","qing-hai-project":"Qing Hai Project","qing-hai-subtitle":"A healthcare initiative in China","bursary-all-levels-p1":"ICH Bursary is funded by ICH Group Ltd. This Bursary is awarded based on financial needs and is open to all levels of students and all nationalities. The award is intended for primary and secondary school and above applicants.","bursary-all-levels-p2":"It does not matter where you start, but how you journey on. A humble background can be a set back to many. At ICH, we prefer to help you see it as a cherished training ground as you progress in life. Education is one of the greatest equaliser of modern society and we like to play an active role in helping you achieve more during your active schooling years.","bursary-all-levels-p3-1":"To apply, share with us you and your immediate family background information and a simple 150 words essay to share with us your story and your aspirations and email to","bursary-all-levels-p3-2":"Attention to ICH BURSARY COMMITTEE.","bursary-all-levels-p4":"Remember, the award is not based on academic excellence and we would like you to express in your own words your story and aspirations.","bursary-all-levels-p5":"We apologise that only successful candidates shall be notified via email. The decision of the ICH Bursary committee is final and binding, and no reason will be given for the non-selection of unsuccessful candidates. No appeal will be entertained.","bursary-nus-title":"ICH Group National University of Singapore (NUS) Bursary","bursary-nus-subtitle":"Successful alumnus who overcame hardship supports students in need","bursary-nus-p1":"Danny Toe grew up in a place not many Singaporeans know about. Tucked away in the hills of Upper Jalan Eunos, Danny used to call a slum his home, and his family’s total household income was S$200 a month. Now, Danny, who graduated from the National University of Singapore’s (NUS) Faculty of Engineering with First Class Honours, is the Chairman of boutique investments and advisory firm ICH Group, and has established the ICH Bursary at his alma mater. The Bursary will be given to undergraduates from any Faculty facing financial hardship.","bursary-nus-p2":"Danny says, “I wanted to be able to help students who need it.”.","bursary-nus-p3":"Danny did not receive a bursary when he was in University. While this made his student days challenging, he has a special place in his heart for those days, especially Yusof Ishak House, where he met his wife...","bursary-nus-p4":"Danny says the fact that he was never motivated by money or promotions is what made him start a business. His aim has always been to do something impactful and bring good to people, and with the Bursary, he has done just that.","bursary-nus-p5":"Reflecting on his gift, Danny says, “The students are what make up the University. I believe that by giving to NUS, I am actually making a difference in a student’s life. I want students to know they should never give up. It does not matter where you start...","bursary-ntu-title":"ICH Group Nanyang Technological University (NTU) Bursary","bursary-ntu-p1":"Boutique financial advisory firm ICH Capital Pte Ltd made a generous gift of $107,000 to establish the ICH Group Bursary Fund in June this year. The Fund will be yet another vital source of financial assistance by annually providing two bursaries of $5,000 each to financially - strapped undergraduates in the University. These awards will kick-off this Academic Year 2012..","bursary-ntu-p2":"The gift is the company’s first towards education in Singapore, and reflects ICH’s commitment towards education and its enthusiasm to forge closer collaborative ties with local institutions. The gift also reflects the company’s commitment to developing the next generation of leaders for Singapore and the region..","bursary-ntu-p3":"To date, about 1 in 10 of the University’s students are in deep financial need. Support from donors has thus played a vital role in alleviating the financial struggles and providing that much needed boost to students from the lower income-strata. Singapore tax residents and Singapore companies who give towards the University also enjoy tax deductions of 2.5 times the donation amount.","bursary-ntu-p4":"ICH CEO, Mr Vincent Toe, an NTU alumnus of Nanyang Business School said: “The local and regional business landscapes of tomorrow will greatly depend on the vast talent and brains of the students of today. As a leading financial advisory firm in Singapore, we stand committed in contributing to the progress of Singapore’s students, especially those with financial difficulties, so that they may have a competitive advantage and play a key role in shaping the future”...","bursary-ntu-p5":"Headquartered in Singapore, with offices in China and Hong Kong, ICH was founded in 2000 and advises and partners alongside companies to develop their full potential by providing access to international capital markets, offering optimum solutions to capital structure and corporate finance, and finding new strategic partners to unlock and realize value...","bursary-ntu-p6":"The establishment of the ICH Group Bursary Fund aligns both ICH’s and NTU’s shared value in reaching out to students from under privileged backgrounds and creating platforms for developing the talent pool of Singapore students in becoming leaders of tomorrow. Bursary recipients will be encouraged to pursue internships at ICH during their course of study..","bursary-sit-title":"ICH Group Singapore Institute of Technology (SIT) Bursary","bursary-sit-p1":"In recognition of low income household families with children studying at university and struggling to pay for their education cost, ICH Group Bursary was established to support financially disadvantaged and deserving undergraduates pursuing full-time degree programmes at the Singapore Institute of Technology (SIT). Each bursary is valued at S$5,000 and is tenable for one Academic Year.","bursary-sit-p2":"The bursary will be used to fund the recipient’s tuition fees, course materials and other education-related expenses. Recipient of this bursary may hold another Bursary concurrently. No bond is required of the recipient. The SIT will award one (1) bursary per academic year. The gift from Mr Toe Teow Heng (CEO of ICH Gemini), along with the matching from the relevant Authority, would contribute to a total amount of $400,000.","bursary-ite-title":"ICH Group Institute of Technical Education (ITE) Bursary","bursary-ite-p1":"TVET (Technical and Vocational Education and Training) is an important pillar of Singapore’s Education & Training System. Institute of Technical Education (ITE) is a major provider of post-secondary education and training to a quarter of the school cohort. ITE offers more than 95 courses across different industry sectors (engineering, ICT, hospitality, business, design and media, healthcare) to equip students for work and future education.","bursary-ite-p2":"The ICH Group Bursary provides a monthly allowance to needy full-time Singaporean students and require regular financial assistance to help them with daily expenses. Each bursary is valued at $900 over 6 months.","qing-hai-title-1":"Construction of a mini hospital/clinic in a remote part of the Qinghai plateau in China –Completed on 11 August 2013","qing-hai-p1":"The project is construction of a mini-hospital with 10 to 12 beds and serves as an outpatient clinic. It is located in the village of Tsunggalok, Nangchen District of Qinghai. Upon completion, it will benefit over 5000 villagers, who today have no convenient access to basic medical facilities...","qing-hai-title-2":"How to get to Tsunggalok village ?","qing-hai-p2":"To get there from Singapore, a convenient way is to fly to Chengdu, China and then, take another internal flight to Xining, the capital of Qinghai province. From Xining, one has to take another 1 hour flight to the town of Yushu (many of us may recall that Yushu was badly devastated by an earthquake in Apr 2010). And from Yushu to the Tsunggalok village is a 5 to 6 hours’ car ride (preferably a 4-wheel drive vehicle!). The village itself is at an altitude of over 4000 metres high. The Village has no access to electricity and telephone communication. Hence, electrical power has to come from either solar or portable power generators. In the winter months, the living conditions there are especially harsh and difficult. The temperature can fall to minus 25 deg C.","qing-hai-p3":"On 11 August 2013, a grand opening ceremony was held to celebrate the competition of the project. The clinic offered a two-day free treatment and attract more than 500 patients on the 1st day.","investee-companies":"Investee Companies","ipo-completed-at-a-glance":"IPO Completed At A Glance","ich-gemini-asia-growth-fund":"ICH Gemini Asia Growth Fund","date-of-inception":"Date of Inception","date-of-inception-a":"Jul 2015","status":"Status","status-a":"Active","fund-size":"Fund Size","fund-size-a":"US $86 million","no-of-invested-companies":"No. of Invested Companies","no-of-invested-companies-a":"18 (excluding Fund of Funds)","no-of-divested-companies":"No. of Divested Companies","no-of-divested-companies-a":"5 (divested at IRR of 13% to 220%)","investment-period":"Investment Period","investment-period-a":"6 months to 3 years","exit-strategy":"Exit Strategy","exit-strategy-a":"Via IPO, trade sale, public equity market and etc.","careers-p1":"ICH is always on the lookout for promising individuals who can collaborate well and make meaningful contributions to the team. We provide a platform for exceptional individuals to come together and produce work that will benefit many.","careers-p2":"If you are looking to join the ICH team, please send your cover letter and resume to ","email":"Email","phone":"Phone","fax":"Fax","call-us":"Call Us","di-intro-text":"We are proud to provide Direct Investments to promising companies that fulfil our Investment Criteria:","di-col-1-1":"Global Market","di-col-1-2":"Can be top 3 in the fields it operates","di-col-1-3":"Clear path on revenue growth and monetization","di-col-1-4":"Best in class team","di-col-1-5":"Clear and defensible core technology/competence","di-col-2-1":"Timing – ready for take off","di-col-2-2":"Strong investor base that can provide follow-on funding","di-col-2-3":"Justified valuations","di-col-2-4":"CEO ability to raise funds","di-col-2-5":"Positive impact on humanity","di-col-2-6":"Good corporate governance","fuf-intro-text":"We are actively on the lookout for unique and promising funds that fulfill our Selection Criteria:","fuf-col-1-1":"Proven deal sourcing","fuf-col-1-2":"Seed, Pre A, and Series A limited to Series B, Pre-IPO late state Unicorn","fuf-col-1-3":"Run by partners with engineering analyses","fuf-col-1-4":"Run by value-adding partners","fuf-col-1-5":"Clear investments strategy complemented by team’s core strengths","fuf-col-1-6":"Clear capital allocation strategy","fuf-col-2-1":"Global venture capital network","fuf-col-2-2":"Display track record on follow-on funding by top tier VCs in portfolio","fuf-col-2-3":"Display exit track records","fuf-col-2-4":"Core values of key partners","fuf-col-2-5":"Strong advisory board and anchor investors","fuf-col-2-6":"Provide ICH co-investment opportunities","philosophy":"Philosophy","philosophy-title-1":"Thoughts On Investments","ich-philosophy-1-1":"Never do business with a crook, even if it is blatantly profitable","ich-philosophy-1-2":"Only invest if you are sure the business will have defensible margin and top line growth and run by the managers whose interests are aligned with shareholders","ich-philosophy-1-3":"In a business where most stakeholders are plotting an exit, either do a complete purchase of the business and place in your managers, or walk away","ich-philosophy-1-4":"Never enrich bad business, unethical managers and business owners","ich-philosophy-1-5":"Do not invest in businesses where the managers and business owners are addicted to debt","ich-philosophy-1-6":"Be ready to walk away if the price is not right, there is always investments opportunities if you work hard enough","ich-philosophy-1-7":"Do not invest because of others, do your own homework","ich-philosophy-1-8":"Do not think you can sell faster than others, if you intend to sell so fast, why invest?","ich-philosophy-1-9":"Liquidity can disappear overnight, so only invest in business you are prepared to hold forever","ich-philosophy-1-10":"The value of a business grows overtime because of the value creation, not financing engineering","philosophy-title-2":"Thoughts on Managers Selection","ich-philosophy-2-1":"Invest in managers who are obsess with operational details","ich-philosophy-2-2":"Invest in managers who talk more about the details than about glossy stuff","ich-philosophy-2-3":"Do not invest in managers who are not concerned with ethics","ich-philosophy-2-4":"Do not invest with managers who spend most of the time doing marketing","ich-philosophy-2-5":"Do not invest with managers who are everywhere, money are made through value creation, not through glib tongue","ich-philosophy-2-6":"Do not invest in managers who lead a high life","ich-philosophy-2-7":"Never invest with over-leveraged managers","philosophy-final-word":"To summarise my thoughts on investing, for future ICH employees, and to all the young people including my children whom I hope can benefit from it.","download-guide-to-investing":"Download Guide to Investing","download-the-newsletter":"Download as PDF","download-application-form":"Download Application Form","projects":"Projects"}}},"originalPath":"/newsletters/the-anatomy-of-a-liquidity-trough-why-q2-2026-is-a-critical-juncture/","path":"/newsletters/the-anatomy-of-a-liquidity-trough-why-q2-2026-is-a-critical-juncture/"}}},"staticQueryHashes":["3649515864","63159454"]}